The Signal And The Noise 2012 Silver Prediction Sports Public Health Politics

Description: The Signal and the NoiseWhy So Many Predictions Fail -- But Some Don'tBy Nate Silver Penguin, 2012, 534 pages Condition as shown in photos. Hardcover with dust jacket. Slight shelf wear. No markings. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Includes:Are You Smarter Than A Television Pundit?How To Drown In Three Feet Of WaterRage Against The MachinesThe Poker BubbleWhat You Don't Know Can Hurt Your

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Location: Birmingham, Alabama

End Time: 2024-11-05T11:11:30.000Z

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