Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Study in Proliferation and Rollback by Rezaei, Farhad

Description: This book presents the first full and systematic account of Iran's nuclear program from 1979 to 2015. Throughout this time, foreign policy makers, intelligence experts, and scholars on the subject have repeatedly failed to understand the internal dynamics behind Iran's nuclear project and have underestimated the depth of the regime's commitment to develop nuclear weapons. The author presents an account of little-understood episodes in the history of the nuclear project, including an analysis of the decision making process of the "nuclear sanctum." A full account is given of the organizations that ran the project and a listing of the suppliers that made the project possible. Finally, the book offers a detailed analysis of the international sanctions placed on Iran, including the induced anomie and legitimacy crisis which expedited the decision to rollback. Farhad Rezaei is Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute (ORMER), Sakarya University, Turkey. He obtained his PhD in International Relations from the Department of International and Strategic Studies at the University of Malaya, Malaysia. CHAPTER 1PROLIFERATION, SANCTIONS AND ROLLBACK: A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH1The Puzzle of Iran's Proliferation: Optimists vs. Pessimists 2Rolling Back Iran's Nuclear Program? Sanction Advocates vs. Sanction Skeptics6Iran as a Non-Unitary Actor: The Negotiated Political Order 9Methodology and Structure12CHAPTER 2THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AND THE BOMB: QURAN MEETS REALISM 16The Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic: The High Cost of Exporting the Revolution 17The Quranic Way Of War: Is There Room For Nuclear Weapons? 28Bushehr and Beyond: Building a Case for Nuclear Weapons33CHAPTER 3RAFSANJANI'S NUCLEAR TAKEOFF: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAK NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME46Hiding in Plain Site: The Legitimate Infrastructure of an Illicit Program 47Building its Own Scientific Cadre: Iran as a Nuclear Science Beacon to the World? 57The Pakistani Connection: Making the Dream of a Muslim Bomb a Doable Reality? 61Shopping in the A. Q. Khan Nuclear Bazaar: the Centrifuge Blueprint Purchase66Beyond the "Khan Bazaar": Making Pakistani Proliferation Official? 72The North Korean Connection: Shopping For Missiles and More 76Evading the Nonproliferation Regime: Complexity and Dissimulation84 CHAPTER 4KHATAMI'S DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS AND THE NUCLEAR "DISAPPEARANCE ACT"100Khatami's Vision of Foreign Policy: The Meaning of the Dialogue among Civilizations100On Khatami's Watch: Speeding Up the Nuclear Project112The MEK's Disclosure and its Aftermath: Adjusting Tactics without Changing Strategy117Khatami: Out of the Loop or Part of the Deception Project?132Slow-Playing the West While Developing the Nuclear Project139CHAPTER 5AHMADINEJAD'S PRINCIPALIST DOCTRINE: SOVEREIGN RIGHTS TO A NUCLEAR ARSENAL156The Nuclear Project in Ahmadinejad's World View: Nuclear Equality for All168The NPT Dilemma in Tehran: To Stay or Exit? 172Security Council Resolutions: Raising the Cost of the Nuclear Project186CHAPTER 6 INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS: THE HIGH COST OF PROLIFERATION IN A NEOPATRIMONIAL REGIME209Sanctions and More Sanctions: Splitting the Iranian Elites 209The 2009 Election As A Referendum On Sanctions: Why Did The Supreme Leader Side With Ahmadinejad?216Cutting to the Bone: The Smart Sanctions in Action 222The Weapons Program during Ahmadinejad's Tenure: Measuring Achievements behind the Rhetoric 230 CHAPTER 7THE ROUHANI PRESIDENCY: THE ROAD TO ROLLBACK 259From Smart Sanctions to Super Smart Sanctions: Putting the Squeeze on the Iranian Economy 260Sanctions and Anomie: A Threshold Condition for Delegitimization? 274 The Election of Hassan Rouhani: A Victory for the Rollback Lobby278 The Nuclear Program Assessed: The View of the International Atomic Energy Agency 283 Rouhani's Gamble: Banking on a Rollback and Normalization 287The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: The Parameters of the Rollback295The JCPOA's Prospects in Tehran: Renegotiating the Negotiated Political Order? 299CONCLUSION321APPENDICES 325

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